It seems like 90% of my recent workload has been writing about prediction markets.
If you don’t know what they are, the short version is this – Americans have discovered betting exchanges. But since gambling is illegal in large parts of the country, they’re pretending it’s something else.

How Come Prediction Markets Aren’t Gambling?
You know how sweepstakes casinos are just gambling with extra steps? You buy fake currencies like Gold Coins, then they give you special Sweepstakes tokens as a bonus. These can be redeemed for USD at the convenient rate of 1 to 1.
But it’s definitely not gambling, honest. Nudge nudge, wink wink.
Prediction markets use a similar sleight of hand, but they pretend it’s like binary trading instead. They offer a real world proposition, phrased as a simple yes/no question, then you buy a “contract” on whichever outcome you think it will be.
Prediction Market Mechanics
Prices are usually displayed in cents, and they add up to a dollar. As such, they effectively tell you the implied probability as a percentage.
Imagine the following proposition:
Will England win the 2026 World Cup?
- Yes – $0.10
- No – $0.90
This suggests a 10% chance of England lifting the trophy, and a 90% likelihood of the Three Lions failing as usual.
If your “prediction” is that England will win, you can buy an event contract for ten cents. Purchase as many as you like, in fact – 100 costs $10, for instance – and then wait for the outcome.
If you correctly predict the outcome of the market, your contract settles at $1. Guess wrong, and you lose the investment.
This Feels a Lot Like Gambling
Yeah, because it is – obviously. Some platforms don’t even bother with the pretext of contract pricing, giving you the probabilities right off the bat.
Just play along, like everyone else. Hear me out.
As prices fluctuate in response to real world events, you can buy and sell more contracts. It’s possible to change your position as often as you like, just as if you were trading on the stocks and shares.
So it’s *not* gambling at all – it’s trading, silly.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US?
In fairness, I’ve been a bit of a dick about this so far. Despite the fact that prediction markets are very obviously a form of gambling, you could say the same about any kind of speculative trading, whether it’s stocks, cryptocurrency or whatever.
Prediction market platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood are approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That’s a legit organisation that regulates actual trading and finance platforms at the federal level.
If it thinks prediction markets fall under its jurisdiction, who am I to argue?
Legal Disputes
I might be a nobody, but some entire US states – like Illinois and Nevada (lol) – are currently embroiled in legal disputes with CFTC.
Why? Because they also (correctly) feel that prediction markets resemble what Europeans have called “betting exchanges” for over a quarter of a century. They believe these platforms should be regulated at the state level, in line with sports betting.
Why Are Prediction Markets So Popular?
These platforms have certainly exploded in the last few years, with hundreds of millions of dollars traded every month in the US. But why?
Well, because, unlike gambling sites, they’re technically legal in all 50 states – ongoing disputes aside.
What better way to place sports bets – and speculate on other real world events, like politics and entertainment too – if sportsbooks are illegal where you live?
These platforms also make the idea of trading far more accessible to beginners. They’re much less intimidating, with simple user interfaces that boil things down to straightforward probabilities and binary options.
Need a Prediction Markets Writer?
As I said at the top of this hit piece blog post, these platforms are all I’ve been writing about in the past three or four months. So, if you’re an affiliate, and you need someone to write prediction markets content for you, let me know.
It should go without saying – but just in case – I obviously don’t write my actual opinions on this stuff for clients. I’m far too professional for that – I’ll dance to whatever my organ grinder tells me to, like the corporate whore that I am.
I’ve been doing all of this work as a ghostwriter, unfortunately, so some other fucker is getting the credit for my expertise. Occupational hazard. But if you want examples of my work in this field, contact me and I’ll figure it out.
After all, I don’t just write amazing content. I solve problems for you, too.
























